BTC and ETH Options Expire This Friday — $14.5B Notional on the Table
Deribit shows a large weekly expiry at 16:00 Beijing time. Market structure and option positioning suggest elevated volatility near expiry. Read the key data and what it can mean for price action.
What the data says
- Total notional value expiring: about
$14.5 billion(BTC + ETH combined). - BTC specific: 102,000 BTC options expiring with a notional of roughly
$11.34 billion. - BTC max pain: $116,000. This is the strike where option sellers would lose the least at expiry.
- ETH max pain: $3,800.
- Put Call Ratio (BTC): 0.79 — more calls than puts overall.
- Expiry time: Friday at 16:00 Beijing time (local time used by Deribit for this window).
Why traders watch max pain and large expiries
Max pain is not a prediction. It is a useful reference that shows where option open interest concentrates. When a large notional is concentrated near certain strikes, short-term flows can nudge spot toward those strikes around expiry.
- Large call open interest above spot may cap upside if market makers hedge by selling spot or futures.
- Large put interest below spot can give a support band because sellers hedge by buying spot or futures.
- When a single expiry holds billions, gamma hedging and option unwinds can increase intraday volatility.
Interpreting the current setup
Short summary: BTC has more call exposure and a max pain at $116k. The Put Call Ratio under 1 indicates relatively more bullish bets via calls. Around expiry expect higher intraday swings. Do not assume the market will land exactly at max pain. It just shows concentration of option losses and potential hedging pressure.
- If price approaches $116k, option hedging and pinning behavior may increase the chances of short-term consolidation near that level.
- If price runs away from max pain, option sellers get squeezed and gamma-driven volatility can accelerate moves.
- Volume and funding conditions in the futures market will determine how much hedging flows move spot price.
Risk note
Options expiry events can make price moves sharper and less predictable. This article does not offer investment advice. Trade risk with position sizing and clear stops.
Want to trade or monitor expiries?
Use reputable platforms and check option open interest and gamma exposure before taking large positions.
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